We’re all dreaming of an economic recovery in a post-Covid world. Recent history shows that after a crisis, there is often an economic boom boosted by consumer spending and technical progress. Should we aspire to such a scenario in the post-Covid era? Yes and no: we’re right to hope for a recovery, but it’s unlikely to resemble the incredible growth experienced in the wake of the Second World War. Today, we believe that economic recovery is no longer possible without consideration for the environment and people. It’s time for ecolonomic development.

History is a succession of crises, followed by periods of recovery and even prosperity. The world’s history is one of resilience. One of the most spectacular examples of this was the thirty-year period of growth after the Second World War. Between 1945 and 1975, the Western world, particularly post-war Europe, experienced its most intense economic development. Many people (including economists) continue to idealise this period, driven by a strong sense of nostalgia.

The economic myth of post-war growth

But let’s briefly remind ourselves of what this thirty-year period was actually like.

Yes, there was:

• Solid economic growth;
• A baby boom;
• (Almost) full employment;
• Wage growth which outstripped inflation;
• A decline in inequality.

But there was also:

• A recovery which relied on industries such as steel, cement and plastics and on the modernisation (chemical fertilisers, pesticides) and mechanisation (tractors) of agriculture;
• An economic boom which was driven by and dependent on the massive extraction of petroleum;
• The rise of consumerism, with mass spending and manufacturing.

We know what happened next: dependence on oil led to oil crises, consumerism turned into hyperconsumerism, creating waste, mountains of rubbish, depleted resources and more.
The various crises which followed were always followed by a recovery, but the latter became increasingly complicated:

• Generating growth through consumer spending becomes difficult once consumers’ basic needs have been met, so new needs have to be constantly created, prices have to be lowered, etc. Fast-fashion and programmed obsolescence are excellent examples of the problematic nature of this approach.
• Governments are forced to implement austerity plans which lead to a further increase in inequality.

 

The legacy of town planning

The post-war period has also left its mark in terms of town planning. In our business, we see this every day:

• Empty town centres, particularly in small towns, because ill-conceived town planning robbed them of any potential appeal;
• A fragmentation of (uni-functional) spaces;
• Buildings and built-up spaces which have rapidly become obsolete;
• A reliance on cars which, although less pronounced in cities, is omnipresent elsewhere;
• Peri-urban areas which have been blighted by the rise (and decline) of industrial estates, where unsustainable buildings dominate (we often refer to them as shoeboxes);
• Shopping centres which are too similar to one another and too focused on certain sectors (e.g. clothing);
• Areas which have been completely abandoned: rural areas and (peri-)urban wastelands (including industrial, railway, commercial and tertiary wastelands and brownfields).

Once again, these phenomena are the result of models which have often been taken to the extreme because of a lack of imagination: it’s all about doing more, rather than doing things differently. In our view, it’s clear that the time has come to do things differently.

 

For an econolomic approach

Yes, we continue to believe in progress, innovation and economic development! We also believe in the relevance of new real estate and retail projects. But we don’t think that the post-war growth model should serve as inspiration. Seemingly miraculous in the short term (although this is debatable, in view of what has happened in the aftermath), this model and its basic principles no longer seem to be applicable today.

But what does “differently” mean to us? An econolomic future:

• A recovery for consumerism, not hyperconsumerism.

We’ve reached the heights of hyperconsumerism. Hyperconsumerism boosted the (sluggish) economic recovery after the 2008 recession, helped by the acceleration of digitisation. Of course, after the pandemic, politicians and businesses around the world are counting on a recovery in consumer spending. So are we. But if we’re being honest, we hope that “different consumer spending” or a focus on “less but better” will prevail.

• Recovery, but not at the expense of the environment and people

Because we have no choice: the challenges facing the environment and people are enormous and commitments have been made, such as the Paris Agreement. We have to deal with the issues, rather than working against them or in spite of them. In any case, we’re confident that old-fashioned approaches have had their time, even from an economic point of view. The time has come to reinvent and adapt, the time has come for more restraint and a more circular and relocated economy.

• Urban renewal, but with control

We need:

• More functional mixed-used buildings: that’s the key to our approach. If cities are to be redeveloped, we should focus on integrated systems, bringing together work, housing, shops, offices, services and logistics.
• Projects which are genuinely beneficial for cities and regions and are complementary to existing offerings, enhancing and strengthening the appeal of these places.
• Real estate projects which focus on brownfields and buildings which are more modular and can be adapted to changing needs to prevent them from being left vacant because of obsolescence.
• Softer mobility which is fully integrated into any new urban, real estate or retail plan: lockdowns have shown us what a world without traffic jams looks like. We hope that this will provide long-term inspiration!
• The focus must be on jointly developed projects involving stakeholders and residents, based on collective intelligence.

Conclusion

The post-Covid world will be fraught with challenges. At GeoConsulting, we prefer to focus on an econolomic future, rather than dreaming of a return to the world as it was before or a “miraculous” recovery, the environmental and social consequences of which will be felt within a few years or decades.
That’s why we choose to believe in virtuous initiatives; we aim to inspire you by showing you what we believe will be the new way forward.